Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Como
56%
Draw
23%
RB Leipzig
20%
Actual result: Como 4 – 1 RB Leipzig · Como winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Como, negative favours RB Leipzig) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Como - RB Leipzig)+0.88
Expected total goals3.40
Expected goals Como / RB Leipzig2.14 / 1.26
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.7% / 35.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.8%
Over 2.5 goals 66.1%
Over 3.5 goals 44.3%
First half
First-half result (Como / draw / RB Leipzig)42.0% / 39.0% / 19.1%
A goal in the first half76.5%
Two or more in the first half47.2%
Half-time then full-time
Como lead at half-time then Como win36.2%
Level at half-time then Como win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw13.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Como's side
Como −2.026.7%
Como −1.7531.0%
Como −1.535.3%
Como −1.2540.5%
Como −1.045.7%
Como −0.7550.9%
Como −0.556.1%
Como −0.2562.0%
Como draw no bet (0.0)67.8%
Como +0.2573.7%
Como +0.579.5%
Como +0.7582.4%
Como +1.085.4%
Como +1.591.2%
Como +2.094.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Como win1.78
Draw4.26
RB Leipzig win4.89
Over 2.51.51
Under 2.52.95
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Como wins by more than 1 goals35%
RB Leipzig wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%