Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Man Utd
91%
Draw
7%
FC Sabah
2%
Actual result: Man Utd 4 – 0 FC Sabah · Man Utd winJarvis gave this outcome: 91% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Man Utd, negative favours FC Sabah) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Man Utd - FC Sabah)+3.16
Expected total goals4.45
Expected goals Man Utd / FC Sabah3.81 / 0.64
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.8% / 53.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 94.0%
Over 2.5 goals 82.1%
Over 3.5 goals 64.9%
First half
First-half result (Man Utd / draw / FC Sabah)72.4% / 22.7% / 4.9%
A goal in the first half85.7%
Two or more in the first half60.3%
Half-time then full-time
Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win71.0%
Level at half-time then Man Utd win17.6%
Level at half-time then draw4.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Man Utd's side
Man Utd −2.069.3%
Man Utd −1.7573.8%
Man Utd −1.578.2%
Man Utd −1.2581.3%
Man Utd −1.084.4%
Man Utd −0.7587.5%
Man Utd −0.590.5%
Man Utd −0.2592.3%
Man Utd draw no bet (0.0)94.1%
Man Utd +0.2595.8%
Man Utd +0.597.6%
Man Utd +0.7598.0%
Man Utd +1.098.5%
Man Utd +1.599.4%
Man Utd +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Man Utd win1.10
Draw14.22
FC Sabah win41.30
Over 2.51.22
Under 2.55.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals78%
FC Sabah wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards2.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%