Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fenerbahce
27%
Draw
28%
Roma
45%
Actual result: Fenerbahce 1 – 1 Roma · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fenerbahce, negative favours Roma) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fenerbahce - Roma)-0.41
Expected total goals2.93
Expected goals Fenerbahce / Roma1.26 / 1.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.0% / 40.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.9%
Over 2.5 goals 56.2%
Over 3.5 goals 33.8%
First half
First-half result (Fenerbahce / draw / Roma)22.8% / 43.1% / 34.2%
A goal in the first half71.5%
Two or more in the first half39.8%
Half-time then full-time
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win28.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Level at half-time then Roma win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fenerbahce's side
Fenerbahce −2.08.1%
Fenerbahce −1.7510.1%
Fenerbahce −1.512.1%
Fenerbahce −1.2515.8%
Fenerbahce −1.019.6%
Fenerbahce −0.7523.3%
Fenerbahce −0.527.0%
Fenerbahce −0.2533.9%
Fenerbahce draw no bet (0.0)40.8%
Fenerbahce +0.2547.8%
Fenerbahce +0.554.7%
Fenerbahce +0.7559.8%
Fenerbahce +1.064.9%
Fenerbahce +1.575.1%
Fenerbahce +2.082.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fenerbahce win3.70
Draw3.62
Roma win2.21
Over 2.51.78
Under 2.52.28
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals12%
Roma wins by more than 1 goals25%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%