Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Slavia Prague
35%
Draw
28%
Lens
37%
Actual result: Slavia Prague 2 – 3 Lens · Lens winJarvis gave this outcome: 37% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Slavia Prague, negative favours Lens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Slavia Prague - Lens)-0.05
Expected total goals3.02
Expected goals Slavia Prague / Lens1.49 / 1.53
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.5% / 37.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.2%
Over 2.5 goals 58.2%
Over 3.5 goals 35.8%
First half
First-half result (Slavia Prague / draw / Lens)27.9% / 42.9% / 29.2%
A goal in the first half72.4%
Two or more in the first half41.4%
Half-time then full-time
Lens lead at half-time then Lens win22.4%
Slavia Prague lead at half-time then Slavia Prague win21.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Slavia Prague's side
Slavia Prague −2.012.1%
Slavia Prague −1.7514.8%
Slavia Prague −1.517.6%
Slavia Prague −1.2521.9%
Slavia Prague −1.026.3%
Slavia Prague −0.7530.7%
Slavia Prague −0.535.1%
Slavia Prague −0.2542.0%
Slavia Prague draw no bet (0.0)49.0%
Slavia Prague +0.2555.9%
Slavia Prague +0.562.9%
Slavia Prague +0.7567.4%
Slavia Prague +1.072.0%
Slavia Prague +1.581.0%
Slavia Prague +2.086.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Slavia Prague win2.85
Draw3.59
Lens win2.70
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.39
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Slavia Prague wins by more than 1 goals18%
Lens wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match54%