Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
PSV
65%
Draw
20%
Shakhtar
15%
Actual result: PSV 1 – 1 Shakhtar · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours PSV, negative favours Shakhtar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (PSV - Shakhtar)+1.25
Expected total goals3.37
Expected goals PSV / Shakhtar2.31 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.6% / 40.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.6%
Over 2.5 goals 65.5%
Over 3.5 goals 43.6%
First half
First-half result (PSV / draw / Shakhtar)48.2% / 35.8% / 16.0%
A goal in the first half77.3%
Two or more in the first half45.6%
Half-time then full-time
PSV lead at half-time then PSV win43.0%
Level at half-time then PSV win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw11.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from PSV's side
PSV −2.033.0%
PSV −1.7537.9%
PSV −1.542.7%
PSV −1.2548.2%
PSV −1.053.7%
PSV −0.7559.2%
PSV −0.564.7%
PSV −0.2569.6%
PSV draw no bet (0.0)74.6%
PSV +0.2579.6%
PSV +0.584.5%
PSV +0.7587.0%
PSV +1.089.4%
PSV +1.594.3%
PSV +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
PSV win1.55
Draw5.04
Shakhtar win6.46
Over 2.51.53
Under 2.52.90
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
PSV wins by more than 1 goals43%
Shakhtar wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match42%