Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Czech Republic
25%
Draw
24%
Mexico
51%
Actual result: Czech Republic 0 – 3 Mexico · Mexico winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Czech Republic, negative favours Mexico) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Czech Republic - Mexico)-0.54
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Czech Republic / Mexico0.98 / 1.52
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.7% / 52.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Czech Republic / draw / Mexico)21.5% / 41.2% / 37.3%
A goal in the first half68.4%
Two or more in the first half30.1%
Half-time then full-time
Mexico lead at half-time then Mexico win30.7%
Level at half-time then Mexico win16.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Czech Republic's side
Czech Republic −2.05.5%
Czech Republic −1.757.1%
Czech Republic −1.58.6%
Czech Republic −1.2512.8%
Czech Republic −1.017.0%
Czech Republic −0.7521.3%
Czech Republic −0.525.5%
Czech Republic −0.2531.4%
Czech Republic draw no bet (0.0)37.2%
Czech Republic +0.2543.1%
Czech Republic +0.549.0%
Czech Republic +0.7555.4%
Czech Republic +1.061.8%
Czech Republic +1.574.5%
Czech Republic +2.082.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Czech Republic win3.93
Draw4.25
Mexico win1.96
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
13.6%
1–1
11.1%
0–2
9.5%
1–2
9.3%
1–0
9.2%
0–0
7.1%
Goal margin
Czech Republic wins by more than 1 goals9%
Mexico wins by more than 1 goals25%