Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Tunisia
4%
Draw
9%
Netherlands
87%
Actual result: Tunisia 1 – 3 Netherlands · Netherlands winJarvis gave this outcome: 87% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Tunisia, negative favours Netherlands) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Tunisia - Netherlands)-2.30
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Tunisia / Netherlands0.34 / 2.64
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.6% / 74.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.8%
Over 2.5 goals 57.2%
Over 3.5 goals 34.8%
First half
First-half result (Tunisia / draw / Netherlands)5.6% / 29.2% / 65.2%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half37.8%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win63.1%
Level at half-time then Netherlands win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw6.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Tunisia's side
Tunisia −2.00.2%
Tunisia −1.750.3%
Tunisia −1.50.4%
Tunisia −1.251.3%
Tunisia −1.02.2%
Tunisia −0.753.0%
Tunisia −0.53.9%
Tunisia −0.256.2%
Tunisia draw no bet (0.0)8.4%
Tunisia +0.2510.6%
Tunisia +0.512.8%
Tunisia +0.7518.2%
Tunisia +1.023.5%
Tunisia +1.534.1%
Tunisia +2.045.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Tunisia win25.49
Draw11.21
Netherlands win1.15
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–2
17.8%
0–3
15.6%
0–1
14.4%
0–4
10.3%
1–2
6.0%
0–5
5.5%
Goal margin
Tunisia wins by more than 1 goals0%
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals66%