Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ecuador
24%
Draw
22%
Germany
53%
Actual result: Ecuador 2 – 1 Germany · Ecuador winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ecuador, negative favours Germany) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ecuador - Germany)-0.62
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Ecuador / Germany0.94 / 1.56
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.6%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Ecuador / draw / Germany)20.9% / 40.2% / 38.9%
A goal in the first half68.9%
Two or more in the first half29.7%
Half-time then full-time
Germany lead at half-time then Germany win32.3%
Level at half-time then Germany win17.2%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ecuador's side
Ecuador −2.04.9%
Ecuador −1.756.4%
Ecuador −1.57.8%
Ecuador −1.2512.0%
Ecuador −1.016.1%
Ecuador −0.7520.3%
Ecuador −0.524.4%
Ecuador −0.2530.0%
Ecuador draw no bet (0.0)35.5%
Ecuador +0.2541.0%
Ecuador +0.546.6%
Ecuador +0.7553.2%
Ecuador +1.059.8%
Ecuador +1.573.0%
Ecuador +2.080.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ecuador win4.09
Draw4.52
Germany win1.87
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
14.5%
1–1
10.4%
0–2
10.0%
1–2
9.4%
1–0
9.4%
0–0
6.5%
Goal margin
Ecuador wins by more than 1 goals8%
Germany wins by more than 1 goals27%