Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
South Africa
18%
Draw
25%
South Korea
58%
Actual result: South Africa 1 – 0 South Korea · South Africa winJarvis gave this outcome: 18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours South Africa, negative favours South Korea) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (South Africa - South Korea)-0.88
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals South Africa / South Korea0.81 / 1.69
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.6% / 54.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.6%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (South Africa / draw / South Korea)16.0% / 42.6% / 41.4%
A goal in the first half67.3%
Two or more in the first half31.3%
Half-time then full-time
South Korea lead at half-time then South Korea win36.3%
Level at half-time then South Korea win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from South Africa's side
South Africa −2.03.3%
South Africa −1.754.4%
South Africa −1.55.4%
South Africa −1.258.4%
South Africa −1.011.5%
South Africa −0.7514.5%
South Africa −0.517.5%
South Africa −0.2523.6%
South Africa draw no bet (0.0)29.8%
South Africa +0.2535.9%
South Africa +0.542.1%
South Africa +0.7548.5%
South Africa +1.054.8%
South Africa +1.567.6%
South Africa +2.076.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
South Africa win5.71
Draw4.07
South Korea win1.73
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
13.5%
0–2
11.7%
1–1
11.6%
1–2
9.5%
0–0
8.5%
0–3
6.6%
Goal margin
South Africa wins by more than 1 goals5%
South Korea wins by more than 1 goals32%