Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Djurgardens
65%
Mjallby
15%
Actual result: Djurgardens 4 – 0 Mjallby · Djurgardens winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Djurgardens, negative favours Mjallby) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Djurgardens - Mjallby)+1.23
Expected total goals3.21
Expected goals Djurgardens / Mjallby2.22 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.4% / 43.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 62.2%
Over 3.5 goals 40.0%
First half
First-half result (Djurgardens / draw / Mjallby)48.0% / 36.2% / 15.7%
A goal in the first half76.0%
Two or more in the first half42.8%
Half-time then full-time
Djurgardens lead at half-time then Djurgardens win42.9%
Level at half-time then Djurgardens win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw11.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Djurgardens's side
Djurgardens −2.032.3%
Djurgardens −1.7537.2%
Djurgardens −1.542.0%
Djurgardens −1.2547.7%
Djurgardens −1.053.4%
Djurgardens −0.7559.1%
Djurgardens −0.564.8%
Djurgardens −0.2569.8%
Djurgardens draw no bet (0.0)74.8%
Djurgardens +0.2579.8%
Djurgardens +0.584.7%
Djurgardens +0.7587.2%
Djurgardens +1.089.7%
Djurgardens +1.594.7%
Djurgardens +2.096.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Djurgardens win1.54
Draw5.02
Mjallby win6.55
Over 2.51.61
Under 2.52.65
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Djurgardens wins by more than 1 goals42%
Mjallby wins by more than 1 goals5%
