Brazilian Serie A

EC Vitoria Salvador vs Vasco Da Gama prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

EC Vitoria Salvador vs Vasco Da Gama (Serie A), 17/07/2026, finished 1-0: EC Vitoria Salvador won. Before the match Jarvis gave EC Vitoria Salvador 39%, the draw 31% and Vasco Da Gama 30%; the actual result had a 39% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

EC Vitoria Salvador

39%

Draw

31%

Vasco Da Gama

30%

Actual result: EC Vitoria Salvador 1 – 0 Vasco Da Gama · EC Vitoria Salvador winJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours EC Vitoria Salvador, negative favours Vasco Da Gama) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (EC Vitoria Salvador - Vasco Da Gama)+0.18

Expected total goals2.42

Expected goals EC Vitoria Salvador / Vasco Da Gama1.30 / 1.12

Both teams to score (yes / no)50.8% / 49.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.4%

Over 2.5 goals 43.7%

Over 3.5 goals 22.6%

First half

First-half result (EC Vitoria Salvador / draw / Vasco Da Gama)29.2% / 46.9% / 24.0%

A goal in the first half65.1%

Two or more in the first half31.1%

Half-time then full-time

EC Vitoria Salvador lead at half-time then EC Vitoria Salvador win23.2%

Level at half-time then draw19.9%

Vasco Da Gama lead at half-time then Vasco Da Gama win17.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from EC Vitoria Salvador's side

EC Vitoria Salvador −2.012.4%

EC Vitoria Salvador −1.7515.4%

EC Vitoria Salvador −1.518.3%

EC Vitoria Salvador −1.2523.5%

EC Vitoria Salvador −1.028.6%

EC Vitoria Salvador −0.7533.7%

EC Vitoria Salvador −0.538.9%

EC Vitoria Salvador −0.2546.6%

EC Vitoria Salvador draw no bet (0.0)54.3%

EC Vitoria Salvador +0.2561.9%

EC Vitoria Salvador +0.569.6%

EC Vitoria Salvador +0.7574.0%

EC Vitoria Salvador +1.078.4%

EC Vitoria Salvador +1.587.2%

EC Vitoria Salvador +2.091.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

EC Vitoria Salvador win2.57

Draw3.25

Vasco Da Gama win3.29

Over 2.52.29

Under 2.51.77

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

EC Vitoria Salvador wins by more than 1 goals18%

Vasco Da Gama wins by more than 1 goals13%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.