CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro MG prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro MG (CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores), 20/08/2026, finished 2-1: Flamengo won. Before the match Jarvis gave Flamengo 57%, the draw 27% and Cruzeiro MG 16%; the actual result had a 57% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Flamengo

57%

Draw

27%

Cruzeiro MG

16%

Actual result: Flamengo 2 – 1 Cruzeiro MG · Flamengo winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Flamengo, negative favours Cruzeiro MG) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Flamengo - Cruzeiro MG)+0.89

Expected total goals2.37

Expected goals Flamengo / Cruzeiro MG1.63 / 0.74

Both teams to score (yes / no)43.4% / 56.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 69.8%

Over 2.5 goals 42.3%

Over 3.5 goals 21.5%

First half

First-half result (Flamengo / draw / Cruzeiro MG)40.4% / 45.2% / 14.3%

A goal in the first half64.7%

Two or more in the first half29.8%

Half-time then full-time

Flamengo lead at half-time then Flamengo win36.0%

Level at half-time then Flamengo win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw18.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Flamengo's side

Flamengo −2.023.1%

Flamengo −1.7527.6%

Flamengo −1.532.2%

Flamengo −1.2538.5%

Flamengo −1.044.8%

Flamengo −0.7551.1%

Flamengo −0.557.4%

Flamengo −0.2564.1%

Flamengo draw no bet (0.0)70.9%

Flamengo +0.2577.7%

Flamengo +0.584.4%

Flamengo +0.7587.1%

Flamengo +1.089.8%

Flamengo +1.595.2%

Flamengo +2.097.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Flamengo win1.74

Draw3.70

Cruzeiro MG win6.42

Over 2.52.37

Under 2.51.73

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Flamengo wins by more than 1 goals32%

Cruzeiro MG wins by more than 1 goals5%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 20/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.