UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahce prediction

1 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahce (Champions League), 30/07/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Gornik Zabrze 15%, the draw 21% and Fenerbahce 64%; the actual result had a 21% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Gornik Zabrze
15%
Draw
21%
Fenerbahce
64%
Actual result: Gornik Zabrze 1 – 1 Fenerbahce · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 21%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Gornik Zabrze, negative favours Fenerbahce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Gornik Zabrze - Fenerbahce)-1.15
Expected total goals2.89
Expected goals Gornik Zabrze / Fenerbahce0.87 / 2.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.8% / 49.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.8%
Over 2.5 goals 55.1%
Over 3.5 goals 32.8%
First half
First-half result (Gornik Zabrze / draw / Fenerbahce)14.9% / 38.7% / 46.4%
A goal in the first half72.3%
Two or more in the first half37.8%
Half-time then full-time
Fenerbahce lead at half-time then Fenerbahce win41.5%
Level at half-time then Fenerbahce win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw13.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Gornik Zabrze's side
Gornik Zabrze −2.03.0%
Gornik Zabrze −1.753.9%
Gornik Zabrze −1.54.8%
Gornik Zabrze −1.257.3%
Gornik Zabrze −1.09.8%
Gornik Zabrze −0.7512.3%
Gornik Zabrze −0.514.9%
Gornik Zabrze −0.2520.2%
Gornik Zabrze draw no bet (0.0)25.6%
Gornik Zabrze +0.2531.0%
Gornik Zabrze +0.536.3%
Gornik Zabrze +0.7542.3%
Gornik Zabrze +1.048.3%
Gornik Zabrze +1.560.3%
Gornik Zabrze +2.070.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Gornik Zabrze win6.73
Draw4.66
Fenerbahce win1.57
Over 2.51.81
Under 2.52.23

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Gornik Zabrze wins by more than 1 goals5%
Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals40%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Slavia PragueTue 20/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs LiverpoolThu 05/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 30/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Champions League table, latest

See the full Champions League table