UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Crvena Zvezda vs Larne prediction

5 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Crvena Zvezda vs Larne (Champions League), 30/07/2026, finished 5-0: Crvena Zvezda won. Before the match Jarvis gave Crvena Zvezda 92%, the draw 5% and Larne 3%; the actual result had a 92% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 4.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Crvena Zvezda

92%

Draw

Larne

Actual result: Crvena Zvezda 5 – 0 Larne · Crvena Zvezda winJarvis gave this outcome: 92% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Crvena Zvezda, negative favours Larne) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Crvena Zvezda - Larne)+3.08

Expected total goals4.03

Expected goals Crvena Zvezda / Larne3.56 / 0.47

Both teams to score (yes / no)36.2% / 63.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 90.7%

Over 2.5 goals 76.6%

Over 3.5 goals 57.2%

First half

First-half result (Crvena Zvezda / draw / Larne)73.9% / 20.8% / 5.3%

A goal in the first half84.5%

Two or more in the first half53.4%

Half-time then full-time

Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time then Crvena Zvezda win72.2%

Level at half-time then Crvena Zvezda win16.6%

Level at half-time then draw3.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Crvena Zvezda's side

Crvena Zvezda −2.068.7%

Crvena Zvezda −1.7573.4%

Crvena Zvezda −1.578.2%

Crvena Zvezda −1.2581.6%

Crvena Zvezda −1.085.1%

Crvena Zvezda −0.7588.5%

Crvena Zvezda −0.592.0%

Crvena Zvezda −0.2593.3%

Crvena Zvezda draw no bet (0.0)94.7%

Crvena Zvezda +0.2596.1%

Crvena Zvezda +0.597.4%

Crvena Zvezda +0.7598.0%

Crvena Zvezda +1.098.5%

Crvena Zvezda +1.599.6%

Crvena Zvezda +2.099.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Crvena Zvezda win1.09

Draw18.28

Larne win38.87

Over 2.51.30

Under 2.54.28

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Crvena Zvezda wins by more than 1 goals78%

Larne wins by more than 1 goals0%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 30/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.