UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Lech Poznan vs AGF prediction

Lech Poznan

1 – 4

Full-time

AGF

Match summary

Lech Poznan vs AGF (Champions League), 30/07/2026, finished 1-4: AGF won.

Next for Lech Poznan: Sunderland (Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lech Poznan

53%

Draw

24%

AGF

23%

Actual result: Lech Poznan 1 – 4 AGF · AGF winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lech Poznan, negative favours AGF) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lech Poznan - AGF)+0.71

Expected total goals3.03

Expected goals Lech Poznan / AGF1.87 / 1.16

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.9% / 41.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.3%

Over 2.5 goals 58.4%

Over 3.5 goals 36.0%

First half

First-half result (Lech Poznan / draw / AGF)39.8% / 39.7% / 20.5%

A goal in the first half73.7%

Two or more in the first half40.4%

Half-time then full-time

Lech Poznan lead at half-time then Lech Poznan win33.6%

Level at half-time then Lech Poznan win17.2%

Level at half-time then draw14.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lech Poznan's side

Lech Poznan −2.022.6%

Lech Poznan −1.7526.8%

Lech Poznan −1.530.9%

Lech Poznan −1.2536.5%

Lech Poznan −1.042.1%

Lech Poznan −0.7547.6%

Lech Poznan −0.553.2%

Lech Poznan −0.2559.2%

Lech Poznan draw no bet (0.0)65.2%

Lech Poznan +0.2571.2%

Lech Poznan +0.577.3%

Lech Poznan +0.7580.7%

Lech Poznan +1.084.0%

Lech Poznan +1.590.8%

Lech Poznan +2.094.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lech Poznan win1.88

Draw4.16

AGF win4.40

Over 2.51.71

Under 2.52.41

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals31%

AGF wins by more than 1 goals9%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lech Poznan

vs SunderlandThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Benfica (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 30/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.