UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Hearts vs Sturm Graz prediction

0 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Hearts vs Sturm Graz (Champions League), 29/07/2026, finished 0-2: Sturm Graz won. Before the match Jarvis gave Hearts 51%, the draw 23% and Sturm Graz 26%; the actual result had a 26% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Next for Sturm Graz: Marseille (Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Hearts

51%

Draw

23%

Sturm Graz

26%

Actual result: Hearts 0 – 2 Sturm Graz · Sturm Graz winJarvis gave this outcome: 26%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hearts, negative favours Sturm Graz) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Hearts - Sturm Graz)+0.59

Expected total goals3.14

Expected goals Hearts / Sturm Graz1.87 / 1.28

Both teams to score (yes / no)61.2% / 38.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 82.4%

Over 2.5 goals 60.8%

Over 3.5 goals 38.5%

First half

First-half result (Hearts / draw / Sturm Graz)38.9% / 38.2% / 22.9%

A goal in the first half75.4%

Two or more in the first half41.7%

Half-time then full-time

Hearts lead at half-time then Hearts win32.0%

Level at half-time then Hearts win16.1%

Sturm Graz lead at half-time then Sturm Graz win14.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Hearts's side

Hearts −2.021.2%

Hearts −1.7525.1%

Hearts −1.529.0%

Hearts −1.2534.5%

Hearts −1.040.0%

Hearts −0.7545.5%

Hearts −0.551.0%

Hearts −0.2556.8%

Hearts draw no bet (0.0)62.6%

Hearts +0.2568.4%

Hearts +0.574.2%

Hearts +0.7577.9%

Hearts +1.081.7%

Hearts +1.589.1%

Hearts +2.092.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Hearts win1.96

Draw4.31

Sturm Graz win3.87

Over 2.51.64

Under 2.52.55

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Hearts wins by more than 1 goals29%

Sturm Graz wins by more than 1 goals11%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Sturm Graz

vs MarseilleThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs NK CeljeFri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 29/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.