Japanese J League

Kashima vs Nagasaki prediction

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Kashima meet Nagasaki in the Japanese J League, kick-off 13:00 on 17/10 (GMT+7). Jarvis gives Kashima a 65% chance to win, 21% for a draw and 14% for Nagasaki; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-0. Jarvis expects 2.7 goals in the match: both teams score with 47%, 3 or more goals with 51%.

Outcome probability

Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
Kashima
65%
Draw
21%
Nagasaki
14%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kashima, negative favours Nagasaki) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kashima - Nagasaki)+1.17
Expected total goals2.73
Expected goals Kashima / Nagasaki1.95 / 0.78
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.6% / 53.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.8%
Over 2.5 goals 51.3%
Over 3.5 goals 29.2%
First half
First-half result (Kashima / draw / Nagasaki)46.7% / 39.3% / 14.0%
A goal in the first half70.6%
Two or more in the first half34.9%
Half-time then full-time
Kashima lead at half-time then Kashima win42.0%
Level at half-time then Kashima win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw13.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kashima's side
Kashima −2.029.7%
Kashima −1.7534.7%
Kashima −1.539.7%
Kashima −1.2546.0%
Kashima −1.052.2%
Kashima −0.7558.5%
Kashima −0.564.7%
Kashima −0.2570.0%
Kashima draw no bet (0.0)75.4%
Kashima +0.2580.7%
Kashima +0.586.0%
Kashima +0.7588.5%
Kashima +1.090.9%
Kashima +1.595.9%
Kashima +2.097.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Kashima win1.54
Draw4.71
Nagasaki win7.13
Over 2.51.95
Under 2.52.06

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Kashima wins by more than 1 goals40%
Nagasaki wins by more than 1 goals4%

Probability trajectory

Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.