UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

NK Celje vs Ararat Armenia prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

NK Celje vs Ararat Armenia (Champions League), 12/08/2026, finished 2-0: NK Celje won. Before the match Jarvis gave NK Celje 69%, the draw 19% and Ararat Armenia 12%; the actual result had a 69% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

NK Celje

69%

Draw

19%

Ararat Armenia

12%

Actual result: NK Celje 2 – 0 Ararat Armenia · NK Celje winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours NK Celje, negative favours Ararat Armenia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (NK Celje - Ararat Armenia)+1.41

Expected total goals3.08

Expected goals NK Celje / Ararat Armenia2.24 / 0.83

Both teams to score (yes / no)50.9% / 49.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.6%

Over 2.5 goals 59.4%

Over 3.5 goals 37.0%

First half

First-half result (NK Celje / draw / Ararat Armenia)50.6% / 36.3% / 13.1%

A goal in the first half74.5%

Two or more in the first half40.7%

Half-time then full-time

NK Celje lead at half-time then NK Celje win46.2%

Level at half-time then NK Celje win20.1%

Level at half-time then draw11.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from NK Celje's side

NK Celje −2.035.4%

NK Celje −1.7540.6%

NK Celje −1.545.8%

NK Celje −1.2551.6%

NK Celje −1.057.4%

NK Celje −0.7563.2%

NK Celje −0.568.9%

NK Celje −0.2573.7%

NK Celje draw no bet (0.0)78.4%

NK Celje +0.2583.2%

NK Celje +0.587.9%

NK Celje +0.7590.0%

NK Celje +1.092.1%

NK Celje +1.596.3%

NK Celje +2.097.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

NK Celje win1.45

Draw5.27

Ararat Armenia win8.29

Over 2.51.68

Under 2.52.46

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

NK Celje wins by more than 1 goals46%

Ararat Armenia wins by more than 1 goals4%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

NK Celje

vs RB SalzburgFri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs SK Sturm Graz (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Ararat Armenia

vs AZ AlkmaarThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Torreense (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 12/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.