UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Lyon vs Sparta Prague prediction

3 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Lyon vs Sparta Prague (Champions League), 12/08/2026, finished 3-0: Lyon won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lyon 71%, the draw 17% and Sparta Prague 12%; the actual result had a 71% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lyon

71%

Draw

17%

Sparta Prague

12%

Actual result: Lyon 3 – 0 Sparta Prague · Lyon winJarvis gave this outcome: 71% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lyon, negative favours Sparta Prague) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lyon - Sparta Prague)+1.53

Expected total goals3.20

Expected goals Lyon / Sparta Prague2.37 / 0.84

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.3% / 48.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 82.8%

Over 2.5 goals 62.1%

Over 3.5 goals 39.8%

First half

First-half result (Lyon / draw / Sparta Prague)53.0% / 33.9% / 13.1%

A goal in the first half76.5%

Two or more in the first half42.1%

Half-time then full-time

Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win48.5%

Level at half-time then Lyon win19.6%

Level at half-time then draw9.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lyon's side

Lyon −2.038.0%

Lyon −1.7543.3%

Lyon −1.548.5%

Lyon −1.2554.3%

Lyon −1.060.0%

Lyon −0.7565.7%

Lyon −0.571.5%

Lyon −0.2575.7%

Lyon draw no bet (0.0)79.9%

Lyon +0.2584.1%

Lyon +0.588.4%

Lyon +0.7590.4%

Lyon +1.092.5%

Lyon +1.596.6%

Lyon +2.097.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lyon win1.40

Draw5.92

Sparta Prague win8.60

Over 2.51.61

Under 2.52.64

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals48%

Sparta Prague wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lyon

vs NiceMon 19/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 49% / 26% / 25%
vs TSG Hoffenheim (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Sparta Prague

vs Olympiacos (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs AFC BournemouthFri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 12/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.