UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce prediction

0 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce (Champions League), 12/08/2026, finished 0-1: Fenerbahce won. Before the match Jarvis gave Sturm Graz 23%, the draw 23% and Fenerbahce 54%; the actual result had a 54% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Sturm Graz

23%

Draw

23%

Fenerbahce

54%

Actual result: Sturm Graz 0 – 1 Fenerbahce · Fenerbahce winJarvis gave this outcome: 54% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sturm Graz, negative favours Fenerbahce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sturm Graz - Fenerbahce)-0.74

Expected total goals3.11

Expected goals Sturm Graz / Fenerbahce1.18 / 1.92

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.7% / 40.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 82.1%

Over 2.5 goals 60.0%

Over 3.5 goals 37.7%

First half

First-half result (Sturm Graz / draw / Fenerbahce)20.8% / 38.5% / 40.7%

A goal in the first half74.8%

Two or more in the first half41.3%

Half-time then full-time

Fenerbahce lead at half-time then Fenerbahce win34.3%

Level at half-time then Fenerbahce win17.0%

Level at half-time then draw13.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sturm Graz's side

Sturm Graz −2.06.0%

Sturm Graz −1.757.6%

Sturm Graz −1.59.1%

Sturm Graz −1.2512.5%

Sturm Graz −1.015.9%

Sturm Graz −0.7519.4%

Sturm Graz −0.522.8%

Sturm Graz −0.2528.5%

Sturm Graz draw no bet (0.0)34.3%

Sturm Graz +0.2540.1%

Sturm Graz +0.545.8%

Sturm Graz +0.7551.4%

Sturm Graz +1.057.1%

Sturm Graz +1.568.3%

Sturm Graz +2.076.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sturm Graz win4.39

Draw4.33

Fenerbahce win1.85

Over 2.51.67

Under 2.52.50

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sturm Graz wins by more than 1 goals9%

Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals32%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Sturm Graz

vs MarseilleThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs NK CeljeFri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Fenerbahce

vs Slavia PragueTue 20/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs LiverpoolThu 05/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 12/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Champions League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
...
27	VIKING FK	2	-2	1
28	Fenerbahce	2	-6	1
29	Internazionale	2	-2	0

See the full Champions League table