English Football League Cup

Nottm Forest vs Leeds prediction

0 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Nottm Forest vs Leeds (English Football League Cup), 26/08/2026, finished 0-2: Leeds won. Before the match Jarvis gave Nottm Forest 42%, the draw 29% and Leeds 29%; the actual result had a 29% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Nottm Forest

42%

Draw

29%

Leeds

29%

Actual result: Nottm Forest 0 – 2 Leeds · Leeds winJarvis gave this outcome: 29%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Nottm Forest, negative favours Leeds) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Nottm Forest - Leeds)+0.27

Expected total goals2.58

Expected goals Nottm Forest / Leeds1.43 / 1.15

Both teams to score (yes / no)53.4% / 46.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 74.3%

Over 2.5 goals 47.7%

Over 3.5 goals 26.0%

First half

First-half result (Nottm Forest / draw / Leeds)31.4% / 45.1% / 23.6%

A goal in the first half67.5%

Two or more in the first half33.5%

Half-time then full-time

Nottm Forest lead at half-time then Nottm Forest win25.2%

Level at half-time then draw18.3%

Leeds lead at half-time then Leeds win16.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Nottm Forest's side

Nottm Forest −2.014.3%

Nottm Forest −1.7517.5%

Nottm Forest −1.520.8%

Nottm Forest −1.2526.0%

Nottm Forest −1.031.3%

Nottm Forest −0.7536.6%

Nottm Forest −0.541.8%

Nottm Forest −0.2549.1%

Nottm Forest draw no bet (0.0)56.4%

Nottm Forest +0.2563.6%

Nottm Forest +0.570.9%

Nottm Forest +0.7575.1%

Nottm Forest +1.079.3%

Nottm Forest +1.587.7%

Nottm Forest +2.091.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Nottm Forest win2.39

Draw3.44

Leeds win3.44

Over 2.52.10

Under 2.51.91

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Nottm Forest wins by more than 1 goals21%

Leeds wins by more than 1 goals12%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards2.0

2.5+ cards in the match32%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Nottm Forest

vs ArsenalSun 18/10, 22:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 16% / 26% / 59%
vs Ipswich Town (away)Sat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Leeds

vs Manchester UnitedSun 18/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 40% / 28% / 32%
vs Sunderland (away)Sun 25/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Other matches on 26/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.