UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

PAOK vs Brann prediction

1 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

PAOK vs Brann (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 21/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave PAOK 63%, the draw 24% and Brann 14%; the actual result had a 24% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
PAOK
63%
Draw
24%
Brann
14%
Actual result: PAOK 1 – 1 Brann · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours PAOK, negative favours Brann) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (PAOK - Brann)+1.10
Expected total goals2.63
Expected goals PAOK / Brann1.86 / 0.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.1% / 53.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.7%
Over 2.5 goals 48.8%
Over 3.5 goals 27.0%
First half
First-half result (PAOK / draw / Brann)44.7% / 41.8% / 13.6%
A goal in the first half68.5%
Two or more in the first half33.9%
Half-time then full-time
PAOK lead at half-time then PAOK win40.3%
Level at half-time then PAOK win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw15.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from PAOK's side
PAOK −2.028.0%
PAOK −1.7532.9%
PAOK −1.537.9%
PAOK −1.2544.0%
PAOK −1.050.2%
PAOK −0.7556.4%
PAOK −0.562.5%
PAOK −0.2568.5%
PAOK draw no bet (0.0)74.4%
PAOK +0.2580.3%
PAOK +0.586.2%
PAOK +0.7588.6%
PAOK +1.091.0%
PAOK +1.595.8%
PAOK +2.097.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
PAOK win1.60
Draw4.22
Brann win7.26
Over 2.52.05
Under 2.51.95

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
PAOK wins by more than 1 goals38%
Brann wins by more than 1 goals4%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 21/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.