US MLS

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota Utd prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota Utd (US MLS), 16/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Real Salt Lake 52%, the draw 26% and Minnesota Utd 22%; the actual result had a 26% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Salt Lake

52%

Draw

26%

Minnesota Utd

22%

Actual result: Real Salt Lake 1 – 1 Minnesota Utd · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Salt Lake, negative favours Minnesota Utd) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Salt Lake - Minnesota Utd)+0.69

Expected total goals2.86

Expected goals Real Salt Lake / Minnesota Utd1.77 / 1.08

Both teams to score (yes / no)56.5% / 43.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.4%

Over 2.5 goals 54.4%

Over 3.5 goals 32.1%

First half

First-half result (Real Salt Lake / draw / Minnesota Utd)38.3% / 42.5% / 19.2%

A goal in the first half70.9%

Two or more in the first half38.3%

Half-time then full-time

Real Salt Lake lead at half-time then Real Salt Lake win32.7%

Level at half-time then Real Salt Lake win17.8%

Level at half-time then draw16.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Salt Lake's side

Real Salt Lake −2.021.7%

Real Salt Lake −1.7525.8%

Real Salt Lake −1.529.9%

Real Salt Lake −1.2535.4%

Real Salt Lake −1.040.9%

Real Salt Lake −0.7546.5%

Real Salt Lake −0.552.0%

Real Salt Lake −0.2558.6%

Real Salt Lake draw no bet (0.0)65.2%

Real Salt Lake +0.2571.8%

Real Salt Lake +0.578.4%

Real Salt Lake +0.7581.6%

Real Salt Lake +1.084.9%

Real Salt Lake +1.591.3%

Real Salt Lake +2.094.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Salt Lake win1.92

Draw3.79

Minnesota Utd win4.63

Over 2.51.84

Under 2.52.19

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Salt Lake wins by more than 1 goals30%

Minnesota Utd wins by more than 1 goals9%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 16/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.