UEFA Champions League

Villarreal vs Napoli prediction

Villarreal

02:00, 14/10

GMT+7

Kicking off soon

Napoli

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Villarreal

45%

Draw

27%

Napoli

28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Villarreal, negative favours Napoli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Villarreal - Napoli)+0.37

Expected total goals2.84

Expected goals Villarreal / Napoli1.61 / 1.23

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.8% / 42.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.7%

Over 2.5 goals 54.0%

Over 3.5 goals 31.7%

First half

First-half result (Villarreal / draw / Napoli)34.0% / 42.5% / 23.5%

A goal in the first half71.0%

Two or more in the first half37.6%

Half-time then full-time

Villarreal lead at half-time then Villarreal win27.5%

Napoli lead at half-time then Napoli win16.3%

Level at half-time then draw16.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Villarreal's side

Villarreal −2.016.8%

Villarreal −1.7520.3%

Villarreal −1.523.8%

Villarreal −1.2529.1%

Villarreal −1.034.3%

Villarreal −0.7539.6%

Villarreal −0.544.9%

Villarreal −0.2551.7%

Villarreal draw no bet (0.0)58.4%

Villarreal +0.2565.1%

Villarreal +0.571.9%

Villarreal +0.7575.9%

Villarreal +1.079.8%

Villarreal +1.587.8%

Villarreal +2.091.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Villarreal win2.23

Draw3.71

Napoli win3.55

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.17

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals24%

Napoli wins by more than 1 goals12%

Corners

Expected total corners9.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards3.2

2.5+ cards in the match39%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory