Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AEK Athens
54%
Draw
24%
Lask Linz
21%
Actual result: AEK Athens 1 – 0 Lask Linz · AEK Athens winJarvis gave this outcome: 54% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AEK Athens, negative favours Lask Linz) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AEK Athens - Lask Linz)+0.78
Expected total goals3.17
Expected goals AEK Athens / Lask Linz1.98 / 1.20
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.5% / 38.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.9%
Over 2.5 goals 61.4%
Over 3.5 goals 39.1%
First half
First-half result (AEK Athens / draw / Lask Linz)40.4% / 40.1% / 19.5%
A goal in the first half74.4%
Two or more in the first half43.3%
Half-time then full-time
AEK Athens lead at half-time then AEK Athens win34.6%
Level at half-time then AEK Athens win17.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AEK Athens's side
AEK Athens −2.024.3%
AEK Athens −1.7528.5%
AEK Athens −1.532.7%
AEK Athens −1.2538.1%
AEK Athens −1.043.4%
AEK Athens −0.7548.8%
AEK Athens −0.554.2%
AEK Athens −0.2560.3%
AEK Athens draw no bet (0.0)66.4%
AEK Athens +0.2572.5%
AEK Athens +0.578.6%
AEK Athens +0.7581.7%
AEK Athens +1.084.8%
AEK Athens +1.591.0%
AEK Athens +2.094.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AEK Athens win1.85
Draw4.09
Lask Linz win4.67
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.59
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AEK Athens wins by more than 1 goals33%
Lask Linz wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards4.2
2.5+ cards in the match41%