Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Real Madrid
61%
Draw
22%
Inter
17%
Actual result: Real Madrid 2 – 1 Inter · Real Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Madrid, negative favours Inter) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Real Madrid - Inter)+1.09
Expected total goals3.31
Expected goals Real Madrid / Inter2.20 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.5% / 39.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.1%
Over 2.5 goals 64.2%
Over 3.5 goals 42.1%
First half
First-half result (Real Madrid / draw / Inter)45.5% / 37.4% / 17.1%
A goal in the first half76.3%
Two or more in the first half44.9%
Half-time then full-time
Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win40.1%
Level at half-time then Real Madrid win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw12.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Real Madrid's side
Real Madrid −2.030.0%
Real Madrid −1.7534.6%
Real Madrid −1.539.3%
Real Madrid −1.2544.7%
Real Madrid −1.050.2%
Real Madrid −0.7555.7%
Real Madrid −0.561.1%
Real Madrid −0.2566.5%
Real Madrid draw no bet (0.0)71.9%
Real Madrid +0.2577.3%
Real Madrid +0.582.7%
Real Madrid +0.7585.3%
Real Madrid +1.088.0%
Real Madrid +1.593.3%
Real Madrid +2.095.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Real Madrid win1.64
Draw4.65
Inter win5.77
Over 2.51.56
Under 2.52.79
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals39%
Inter wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%