Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Porto
17%
Draw
24%
Man City
59%
Actual result: Porto 0 – 2 Man City · Man City winJarvis gave this outcome: 59% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Porto, negative favours Man City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Porto - Man City)-0.94
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Porto / Man City0.91 / 1.85
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.1% / 48.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.0%
Over 2.5 goals 52.0%
Over 3.5 goals 29.8%
First half
First-half result (Porto / draw / Man City)16.3% / 41.2% / 42.5%
A goal in the first half70.3%
Two or more in the first half36.0%
Half-time then full-time
Man City lead at half-time then Man City win37.4%
Level at half-time then Man City win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw15.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Porto's side
Porto −2.03.7%
Porto −1.754.8%
Porto −1.55.9%
Porto −1.258.7%
Porto −1.011.6%
Porto −0.7514.4%
Porto −0.517.2%
Porto −0.2523.3%
Porto draw no bet (0.0)29.3%
Porto +0.2535.3%
Porto +0.541.4%
Porto +0.7547.3%
Porto +1.053.3%
Porto +1.565.3%
Porto +2.074.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Porto win5.80
Draw4.14
Man City win1.71
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Porto wins by more than 1 goals6%
Man City wins by more than 1 goals35%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%