Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Dortmund
54%
Draw
25%
Villarreal
21%
Actual result: Dortmund 3 – 2 Villarreal · Dortmund winJarvis gave this outcome: 54% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Dortmund, negative favours Villarreal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Dortmund - Villarreal)+0.79
Expected total goals3.22
Expected goals Dortmund / Villarreal2.00 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.4% / 37.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.7%
Over 2.5 goals 62.4%
Over 3.5 goals 40.2%
First half
First-half result (Dortmund / draw / Villarreal)40.3% / 40.3% / 19.4%
A goal in the first half74.6%
Two or more in the first half44.3%
Half-time then full-time
Dortmund lead at half-time then Dortmund win34.6%
Level at half-time then Dortmund win17.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Dortmund's side
Dortmund −2.024.6%
Dortmund −1.7528.8%
Dortmund −1.533.0%
Dortmund −1.2538.3%
Dortmund −1.043.5%
Dortmund −0.7548.8%
Dortmund −0.554.1%
Dortmund −0.2560.2%
Dortmund draw no bet (0.0)66.4%
Dortmund +0.2572.6%
Dortmund +0.578.7%
Dortmund +0.7581.8%
Dortmund +1.084.8%
Dortmund +1.590.9%
Dortmund +2.094.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Dortmund win1.85
Draw4.05
Villarreal win4.71
Over 2.51.60
Under 2.52.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals33%
Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%