Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lille
43%
Draw
28%
Betis
29%
Actual result: Lille 2 – 3 Betis · Betis winJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lille, negative favours Betis) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lille - Betis)+0.31
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Lille / Betis1.57 / 1.26
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.5% / 41.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.2%
Over 2.5 goals 53.7%
Over 3.5 goals 31.4%
First half
First-half result (Lille / draw / Betis)32.4% / 43.8% / 23.7%
A goal in the first half70.3%
Two or more in the first half38.1%
Half-time then full-time
Lille lead at half-time then Lille win26.2%
Level at half-time then draw17.4%
Betis lead at half-time then Betis win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lille's side
Lille −2.015.9%
Lille −1.7519.2%
Lille −1.522.6%
Lille −1.2527.6%
Lille −1.032.7%
Lille −0.7537.7%
Lille −0.542.8%
Lille −0.2549.9%
Lille draw no bet (0.0)57.0%
Lille +0.2564.1%
Lille +0.571.2%
Lille +0.7575.2%
Lille +1.079.1%
Lille +1.587.0%
Lille +2.091.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lille win2.34
Draw3.52
Betis win3.47
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.16
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lille wins by more than 1 goals23%
Betis wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards4.2
2.5+ cards in the match60%