Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Club Brugge
37%
Draw
27%
Aston Villa
35%
Actual result: Club Brugge 2 – 3 Aston Villa · Aston Villa winJarvis gave this outcome: 35%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Club Brugge, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Club Brugge - Aston Villa)+0.05
Expected total goals2.88
Expected goals Club Brugge / Aston Villa1.46 / 1.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.5% / 40.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 goals 54.9%
Over 3.5 goals 32.6%
First half
First-half result (Club Brugge / draw / Aston Villa)29.4% / 42.7% / 28.0%
A goal in the first half71.4%
Two or more in the first half38.4%
Half-time then full-time
Club Brugge lead at half-time then Club Brugge win22.4%
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Club Brugge's side
Club Brugge −2.012.7%
Club Brugge −1.7515.6%
Club Brugge −1.518.4%
Club Brugge −1.2523.2%
Club Brugge −1.027.9%
Club Brugge −0.7532.6%
Club Brugge −0.537.4%
Club Brugge −0.2544.2%
Club Brugge draw no bet (0.0)51.1%
Club Brugge +0.2558.0%
Club Brugge +0.564.8%
Club Brugge +0.7569.4%
Club Brugge +1.074.0%
Club Brugge +1.583.1%
Club Brugge +2.088.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Club Brugge win2.67
Draw3.64
Aston Villa win2.84
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.52.22
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Club Brugge wins by more than 1 goals18%
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match45%