UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

AEK Athens vs PFC Levski Sofia prediction

4 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

AEK Athens vs PFC Levski Sofia (Champions League), 27/08/2026, finished 4-0: AEK Athens won. Before the match Jarvis gave AEK Athens 66%, the draw 23% and PFC Levski Sofia 11%; the actual result had a 66% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

AEK Athens

66%

Draw

23%

PFC Levski Sofia

11%

Actual result: AEK Athens 4 – 0 PFC Levski Sofia · AEK Athens winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AEK Athens, negative favours PFC Levski Sofia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (AEK Athens - PFC Levski Sofia)+1.19

Expected total goals2.38

Expected goals AEK Athens / PFC Levski Sofia1.79 / 0.60

Both teams to score (yes / no)37.8% / 62.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 69.2%

Over 2.5 goals 42.6%

Over 3.5 goals 21.8%

First half

First-half result (AEK Athens / draw / PFC Levski Sofia)46.0% / 42.7% / 11.3%

A goal in the first half65.4%

Two or more in the first half29.4%

Half-time then full-time

AEK Athens lead at half-time then AEK Athens win42.2%

Level at half-time then AEK Athens win21.8%

Level at half-time then draw15.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from AEK Athens's side

AEK Athens −2.028.8%

AEK Athens −1.7534.0%

AEK Athens −1.539.2%

AEK Athens −1.2545.8%

AEK Athens −1.052.4%

AEK Athens −0.7559.1%

AEK Athens −0.565.7%

AEK Athens −0.2571.4%

AEK Athens draw no bet (0.0)77.2%

AEK Athens +0.2582.9%

AEK Athens +0.588.6%

AEK Athens +0.7590.8%

AEK Athens +1.092.9%

AEK Athens +1.597.2%

AEK Athens +2.098.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

AEK Athens win1.52

Draw4.36

PFC Levski Sofia win8.79

Over 2.52.35

Under 2.51.74

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

AEK Athens wins by more than 1 goals39%

PFC Levski Sofia wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

AEK Athens

vs Manchester City (away)Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Real MadridThu 05/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

PFC Levski Sofia

vs Viktoria Plzen (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Jagiellonia BialystokFri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 27/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Champions League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
...
19	Lens	2	-1	3
20	AEK Athens	2	-1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	-2	3

See the full Champions League table