Spanish La Liga

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction

4 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (La Liga), 27/08/2026, finished 4-1: Real Madrid won. Before the match Jarvis gave Real Madrid 80%, the draw 13% and Real Sociedad 7%; the actual result had a 80% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 3.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Madrid

80%

Draw

13%

Real Sociedad

Actual result: Real Madrid 4 – 1 Real Sociedad · Real Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 80% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Madrid, negative favours Real Sociedad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Madrid - Real Sociedad)+2.09

Expected total goals3.65

Expected goals Real Madrid / Real Sociedad2.87 / 0.78

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.3% / 48.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 88.1%

Over 2.5 goals 70.6%

Over 3.5 goals 49.5%

First half

First-half result (Real Madrid / draw / Real Sociedad)60.5% / 29.8% / 9.7%

A goal in the first half80.3%

Two or more in the first half49.2%

Half-time then full-time

Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win57.3%

Level at half-time then Real Madrid win19.6%

Level at half-time then draw7.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Madrid's side

Real Madrid −2.049.8%

Real Madrid −1.7555.2%

Real Madrid −1.560.5%

Real Madrid −1.2565.3%

Real Madrid −1.070.2%

Real Madrid −0.7575.0%

Real Madrid −0.579.9%

Real Madrid −0.2583.1%

Real Madrid draw no bet (0.0)86.4%

Real Madrid +0.2589.6%

Real Madrid +0.592.9%

Real Madrid +0.7594.2%

Real Madrid +1.095.4%

Real Madrid +1.598.0%

Real Madrid +2.098.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Madrid win1.25

Draw7.68

Real Sociedad win14.06

Over 2.51.42

Under 2.53.40

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals60%

Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals2%

Corners

Expected total corners10.3

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards3.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%