UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Lyon vs Fenerbahce prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Lyon vs Fenerbahce (Champions League), 27/08/2026, finished 1-2: Fenerbahce won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lyon 50%, the draw 28% and Fenerbahce 23%; the actual result had a 23% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lyon

50%

Draw

28%

Fenerbahce

23%

Actual result: Lyon 1 – 2 Fenerbahce · Fenerbahce winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lyon, negative favours Fenerbahce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lyon - Fenerbahce)+0.59

Expected total goals2.75

Expected goals Lyon / Fenerbahce1.67 / 1.08

Both teams to score (yes / no)55.3% / 44.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.7%

Over 2.5 goals 51.9%

Over 3.5 goals 29.7%

First half

First-half result (Lyon / draw / Fenerbahce)36.5% / 43.7% / 19.8%

A goal in the first half69.4%

Two or more in the first half36.7%

Half-time then full-time

Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win30.8%

Level at half-time then Lyon win17.4%

Level at half-time then draw17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lyon's side

Lyon −2.019.7%

Lyon −1.7523.6%

Lyon −1.527.5%

Lyon −1.2533.0%

Lyon −1.038.5%

Lyon −0.7544.0%

Lyon −0.549.5%

Lyon −0.2556.4%

Lyon draw no bet (0.0)63.4%

Lyon +0.2570.3%

Lyon +0.577.2%

Lyon +0.7580.6%

Lyon +1.084.0%

Lyon +1.590.8%

Lyon +2.094.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lyon win2.02

Draw3.61

Fenerbahce win4.38

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.52.08

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals28%

Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals9%

Corners

Expected total corners10.1

6.5+ corners in the match55%

Cards

Expected total cards3.2

2.5+ cards in the match40%