Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Apollon Limassol
77%
Dila Gori
8%
Actual result: Apollon Limassol 3 – 0 Dila Gori · Apollon Limassol winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Apollon Limassol, negative favours Dila Gori) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Apollon Limassol - Dila Gori)+1.76
Expected total goals3.04
Expected goals Apollon Limassol / Dila Gori2.40 / 0.64
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.8% / 57.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 58.5%
Over 3.5 goals 36.1%
First half
First-half result (Apollon Limassol / draw / Dila Gori)56.3% / 33.7% / 10.0%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Apollon Limassol lead at half-time then Apollon Limassol win52.9%
Level at half-time then Apollon Limassol win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw9.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Apollon Limassol's side
Apollon Limassol −2.042.4%
Apollon Limassol −1.7548.0%
Apollon Limassol −1.553.6%
Apollon Limassol −1.2559.4%
Apollon Limassol −1.065.1%
Apollon Limassol −0.7570.9%
Apollon Limassol −0.576.6%
Apollon Limassol −0.2580.4%
Apollon Limassol draw no bet (0.0)84.2%
Apollon Limassol +0.2588.0%
Apollon Limassol +0.591.8%
Apollon Limassol +0.7593.4%
Apollon Limassol +1.094.9%
Apollon Limassol +1.598.1%
Apollon Limassol +2.098.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Apollon Limassol win1.30
Draw6.61
Dila Gori win12.18
Over 2.51.71
Under 2.52.41
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Apollon Limassol wins by more than 1 goals54%
Dila Gori wins by more than 1 goals2%
