Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Arsenal
56%
Draw
25%
Chelsea
19%
Actual result: Arsenal 2 – 1 Chelsea · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal, negative favours Chelsea) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Arsenal - Chelsea)+0.83
Expected total goals2.69
Expected goals Arsenal / Chelsea1.76 / 0.93
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.0% / 49.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.8%
Over 2.5 goals 50.4%
Over 3.5 goals 28.3%
First half
First-half result (Arsenal / draw / Chelsea)40.7% / 42.1% / 17.2%
A goal in the first half69.4%
Two or more in the first half34.9%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win35.4%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Arsenal's side
Arsenal −2.023.4%
Arsenal −1.7527.7%
Arsenal −1.532.1%
Arsenal −1.2538.1%
Arsenal −1.044.1%
Arsenal −0.7550.1%
Arsenal −0.556.1%
Arsenal −0.2562.3%
Arsenal draw no bet (0.0)68.6%
Arsenal +0.2574.9%
Arsenal +0.581.2%
Arsenal +0.7584.2%
Arsenal +1.087.3%
Arsenal +1.593.4%
Arsenal +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Arsenal win1.78
Draw3.99
Chelsea win5.31
Over 2.51.99
Under 2.52.01
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals32%
Chelsea wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards4.5
2.5+ cards in the match46%