Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Frosinone
35%
Draw
28%
Venezia
36%
Actual result: Frosinone 3 – 2 Venezia · Frosinone winJarvis gave this outcome: 35%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Frosinone, negative favours Venezia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Frosinone - Venezia)-0.03
Expected total goals3.06
Expected goals Frosinone / Venezia1.52 / 1.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.6% / 36.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.2%
Over 2.5 goals 59.0%
Over 3.5 goals 36.6%
First half
First-half result (Frosinone / draw / Venezia)27.9% / 43.5% / 28.7%
A goal in the first half72.4%
Two or more in the first half42.4%
Half-time then full-time
Venezia lead at half-time then Venezia win22.0%
Frosinone lead at half-time then Frosinone win21.2%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Frosinone's side
Frosinone −2.012.5%
Frosinone −1.7515.2%
Frosinone −1.518.0%
Frosinone −1.2522.3%
Frosinone −1.026.6%
Frosinone −0.7530.9%
Frosinone −0.535.2%
Frosinone −0.2542.3%
Frosinone draw no bet (0.0)49.4%
Frosinone +0.2556.5%
Frosinone +0.563.6%
Frosinone +0.7568.0%
Frosinone +1.072.4%
Frosinone +1.581.1%
Frosinone +2.086.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Frosinone win2.84
Draw3.52
Venezia win2.75
Over 2.51.69
Under 2.52.44
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Frosinone wins by more than 1 goals18%
Venezia wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%