Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Parma
34%
Draw
33%
AC Monza
33%
Actual result: Parma 1 – 1 AC Monza · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Parma, negative favours AC Monza) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Parma - AC Monza)+0.01
Expected total goals2.19
Expected goals Parma / AC Monza1.10 / 1.09
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.4% / 53.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.4%
Over 2.5 goals 37.5%
Over 3.5 goals 17.9%
First half
First-half result (Parma / draw / AC Monza)25.3% / 49.8% / 24.9%
A goal in the first half61.3%
Two or more in the first half27.3%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.5%
Parma lead at half-time then Parma win19.7%
AC Monza lead at half-time then AC Monza win19.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Parma's side
Parma −2.09.4%
Parma −1.7511.9%
Parma −1.514.4%
Parma −1.2519.2%
Parma −1.024.0%
Parma −0.7528.9%
Parma −0.533.7%
Parma −0.2542.0%
Parma draw no bet (0.0)50.4%
Parma +0.2558.7%
Parma +0.567.1%
Parma +0.7571.8%
Parma +1.076.6%
Parma +1.586.1%
Parma +2.090.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Parma win2.97
Draw2.99
AC Monza win3.04
Over 2.52.67
Under 2.51.60
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Parma wins by more than 1 goals14%
AC Monza wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%