Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Valencia
8%
Draw
15%
Barcelona
77%
Actual result: Valencia 0 – 5 Barcelona · Barcelona winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Valencia, negative favours Barcelona) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Valencia - Barcelona)-1.89
Expected total goals3.48
Expected goals Valencia / Barcelona0.79 / 2.68
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.5% / 48.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.6%
Over 2.5 goals 67.5%
Over 3.5 goals 45.9%
First half
First-half result (Valencia / draw / Barcelona)10.4% / 32.1% / 57.6%
A goal in the first half78.5%
Two or more in the first half46.9%
Half-time then full-time
Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win54.1%
Level at half-time then Barcelona win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw8.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Valencia's side
Valencia −2.01.5%
Valencia −1.751.9%
Valencia −1.52.4%
Valencia −1.253.8%
Valencia −1.05.3%
Valencia −0.756.7%
Valencia −0.58.2%
Valencia −0.2511.9%
Valencia draw no bet (0.0)15.6%
Valencia +0.2519.4%
Valencia +0.523.1%
Valencia +0.7528.2%
Valencia +1.033.3%
Valencia +1.543.6%
Valencia +2.054.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Valencia win12.26
Draw6.70
Barcelona win1.30
Over 2.51.48
Under 2.53.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Valencia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals56%
Corners
Expected total corners10.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%