Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Juventus
44%
Draw
31%
AC Milan
25%
Actual result: Juventus 1 – 1 AC Milan · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Juventus, negative favours AC Milan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Juventus - AC Milan)+0.40
Expected total goals2.33
Expected goals Juventus / AC Milan1.36 / 0.96
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.7% / 52.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.2%
Over 2.5 goals 41.1%
Over 3.5 goals 20.6%
First half
First-half result (Juventus / draw / AC Milan)32.2% / 47.5% / 20.3%
A goal in the first half63.7%
Two or more in the first half29.4%
Half-time then full-time
Juventus lead at half-time then Juventus win26.7%
Level at half-time then draw20.4%
Level at half-time then Juventus win16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Juventus's side
Juventus −2.014.9%
Juventus −1.7518.4%
Juventus −1.521.8%
Juventus −1.2527.4%
Juventus −1.033.1%
Juventus −0.7538.7%
Juventus −0.544.3%
Juventus −0.2552.0%
Juventus draw no bet (0.0)59.7%
Juventus +0.2567.4%
Juventus +0.575.1%
Juventus +0.7579.0%
Juventus +1.082.8%
Juventus +1.590.6%
Juventus +2.094.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Juventus win2.26
Draw3.25
AC Milan win4.02
Over 2.52.43
Under 2.51.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Juventus wins by more than 1 goals22%
AC Milan wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%