Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Everton
27%
Draw
28%
Man Utd
46%
Actual result: Everton 2 – 2 Man Utd · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Everton, negative favours Man Utd) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Everton - Man Utd)-0.43
Expected total goals2.90
Expected goals Everton / Man Utd1.24 / 1.66
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.2% / 40.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.2%
Over 2.5 goals 55.3%
Over 3.5 goals 33.0%
First half
First-half result (Everton / draw / Man Utd)22.6% / 43.1% / 34.4%
A goal in the first half71.2%
Two or more in the first half39.1%
Half-time then full-time
Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win28.2%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Level at half-time then Man Utd win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Everton's side
Everton −2.07.8%
Everton −1.759.8%
Everton −1.511.8%
Everton −1.2515.6%
Everton −1.019.3%
Everton −0.7523.0%
Everton −0.526.8%
Everton −0.2533.7%
Everton draw no bet (0.0)40.6%
Everton +0.2547.5%
Everton +0.554.4%
Everton +0.7559.5%
Everton +1.064.7%
Everton +1.575.1%
Everton +2.082.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Everton win3.73
Draw3.63
Man Utd win2.19
Over 2.51.81
Under 2.52.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Everton wins by more than 1 goals12%
Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals25%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%