Brazilian Serie A

Atletico MG vs Bahia prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Atletico MG vs Bahia (Serie A), 22/07/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Atletico MG 48%, the draw 28% and Bahia 24%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Atletico MG

48%

Draw

28%

Bahia

24%

Actual result: Atletico MG 1 – 1 Bahia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico MG, negative favours Bahia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Atletico MG - Bahia)+0.52

Expected total goals2.57

Expected goals Atletico MG / Bahia1.55 / 1.03

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.8% / 48.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 74.0%

Over 2.5 goals 47.5%

Over 3.5 goals 25.9%

First half

First-half result (Atletico MG / draw / Bahia)35.3% / 44.4% / 20.3%

A goal in the first half67.6%

Two or more in the first half33.3%

Half-time then full-time

Atletico MG lead at half-time then Atletico MG win29.6%

Level at half-time then draw17.7%

Level at half-time then Atletico MG win17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Atletico MG's side

Atletico MG −2.017.9%

Atletico MG −1.7521.7%

Atletico MG −1.525.4%

Atletico MG −1.2531.1%

Atletico MG −1.036.8%

Atletico MG −0.7542.5%

Atletico MG −0.548.2%

Atletico MG −0.2555.2%

Atletico MG draw no bet (0.0)62.2%

Atletico MG +0.2569.2%

Atletico MG +0.576.1%

Atletico MG +0.7579.8%

Atletico MG +1.083.5%

Atletico MG +1.590.8%

Atletico MG +2.094.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Atletico MG win2.07

Draw3.58

Bahia win4.19

Over 2.52.10

Under 2.51.91

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Atletico MG wins by more than 1 goals25%

Bahia wins by more than 1 goals9%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 22/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.