Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Barcelona
91%
Draw
6%
Feyenoord
3%
Actual result: Barcelona 5 – 1 Feyenoord · Barcelona winJarvis gave this outcome: 91% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Barcelona, negative favours Feyenoord) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Barcelona - Feyenoord)+3.27
Expected total goals4.64
Expected goals Barcelona / Feyenoord3.95 / 0.68
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.6% / 51.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 94.7%
Over 2.5 goals 84.1%
Over 3.5 goals 68.0%
First half
First-half result (Barcelona / draw / Feyenoord)73.8% / 20.9% / 5.4%
A goal in the first half87.2%
Two or more in the first half62.0%
Half-time then full-time
Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win72.2%
Level at half-time then Barcelona win16.5%
Level at half-time then draw3.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Barcelona's side
Barcelona −2.070.9%
Barcelona −1.7575.1%
Barcelona −1.579.4%
Barcelona −1.2582.4%
Barcelona −1.085.3%
Barcelona −0.7588.3%
Barcelona −0.591.2%
Barcelona −0.2592.8%
Barcelona draw no bet (0.0)94.3%
Barcelona +0.2595.9%
Barcelona +0.597.5%
Barcelona +0.7597.9%
Barcelona +1.098.4%
Barcelona +1.599.4%
Barcelona +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Barcelona win1.10
Draw16.05
Feyenoord win39.28
Over 2.51.19
Under 2.56.29
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals79%
Feyenoord wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%