Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Napoli
14%
Draw
24%
Arsenal
62%
Actual result: Napoli 0 – 1 Arsenal · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Napoli, negative favours Arsenal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Napoli - Arsenal)-1.05
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Napoli / Arsenal0.73 / 1.77
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.7% / 56.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.7%
Over 3.5 goals 24.3%
First half
First-half result (Napoli / draw / Arsenal)13.6% / 42.7% / 43.7%
A goal in the first half67.0%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win39.3%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Napoli's side
Napoli −2.02.5%
Napoli −1.753.3%
Napoli −1.54.1%
Napoli −1.256.6%
Napoli −1.09.1%
Napoli −0.7511.6%
Napoli −0.514.1%
Napoli −0.2520.2%
Napoli draw no bet (0.0)26.2%
Napoli +0.2532.3%
Napoli +0.538.4%
Napoli +0.7544.7%
Napoli +1.051.1%
Napoli +1.563.8%
Napoli +2.073.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Napoli win7.08
Draw4.13
Arsenal win1.62
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Napoli wins by more than 1 goals4%
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals36%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match54%