Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Liverpool
55%
Draw
25%
Atletico Madrid
20%
Actual result: Liverpool 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid · Liverpool winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Liverpool, negative favours Atletico Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Liverpool - Atletico Madrid)+0.82
Expected total goals3.09
Expected goals Liverpool / Atletico Madrid1.96 / 1.14
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.8% / 40.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.9%
Over 2.5 goals 59.7%
Over 3.5 goals 37.3%
First half
First-half result (Liverpool / draw / Atletico Madrid)40.7% / 40.7% / 18.6%
A goal in the first half73.5%
Two or more in the first half42.2%
Half-time then full-time
Liverpool lead at half-time then Liverpool win35.1%
Level at half-time then Liverpool win18.0%
Level at half-time then draw14.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Liverpool's side
Liverpool −2.024.6%
Liverpool −1.7528.9%
Liverpool −1.533.2%
Liverpool −1.2538.6%
Liverpool −1.044.1%
Liverpool −0.7549.5%
Liverpool −0.554.9%
Liverpool −0.2561.1%
Liverpool draw no bet (0.0)67.3%
Liverpool +0.2573.5%
Liverpool +0.579.7%
Liverpool +0.7582.7%
Liverpool +1.085.7%
Liverpool +1.591.7%
Liverpool +2.094.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Liverpool win1.82
Draw4.03
Atletico Madrid win4.93
Over 2.51.67
Under 2.52.48
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Liverpool wins by more than 1 goals33%
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.5
2.5+ cards in the match46%