UEFA Champions League
Sporting Lisbon vs Galatasaray prediction
3 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sporting Lisbon
57%
Draw
23%
Galatasaray
20%
Actual result: Sporting Lisbon 3 – 1 Galatasaray · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Lisbon, negative favours Galatasaray) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sporting Lisbon - Galatasaray)+0.93
Expected total goals3.29
Expected goals Sporting Lisbon / Galatasaray2.11 / 1.18
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.1% / 37.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.2%
Over 2.5 goals 63.9%
Over 3.5 goals 41.8%
First half
First-half result (Sporting Lisbon / draw / Galatasaray)42.8% / 38.6% / 18.5%
A goal in the first half75.8%
Two or more in the first half45.1%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win37.1%
Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win18.0%
Level at half-time then draw13.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sporting Lisbon's side
Sporting Lisbon −2.027.1%
Sporting Lisbon −1.7531.5%
Sporting Lisbon −1.535.9%
Sporting Lisbon −1.2541.3%
Sporting Lisbon −1.046.7%
Sporting Lisbon −0.7552.0%
Sporting Lisbon −0.557.4%
Sporting Lisbon −0.2563.2%
Sporting Lisbon draw no bet (0.0)68.9%
Sporting Lisbon +0.2574.7%
Sporting Lisbon +0.580.4%
Sporting Lisbon +0.7583.3%
Sporting Lisbon +1.086.2%
Sporting Lisbon +1.592.0%
Sporting Lisbon +2.094.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sporting Lisbon win1.74
Draw4.35
Galatasaray win5.10
Over 2.51.56
Under 2.52.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals36%
Galatasaray wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%