Portuguese Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Estoril Praia prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Benfica vs Estoril Praia (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 01/09/2026, finished 2-1: Benfica won. Before the match Jarvis gave Benfica 88%, the draw 8% and Estoril Praia 4%; the actual result had a 88% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.9.

Next for Benfica: Omonia Nicosia (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Benfica

88%

Draw

Estoril Praia

Actual result: Benfica 2 – 1 Estoril Praia · Benfica winJarvis gave this outcome: 88% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benfica, negative favours Estoril Praia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Benfica - Estoril Praia)+2.71

Expected total goals3.93

Expected goals Benfica / Estoril Praia3.32 / 0.61

Both teams to score (yes / no)43.7% / 56.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 90.0%

Over 2.5 goals 75.1%

Over 3.5 goals 55.2%

First half

First-half result (Benfica / draw / Estoril Praia)69.2% / 23.7% / 7.1%

A goal in the first half83.5%

Two or more in the first half52.2%

Half-time then full-time

Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win66.9%

Level at half-time then Benfica win17.7%

Level at half-time then draw4.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Benfica's side

Benfica −2.061.9%

Benfica −1.7566.9%

Benfica −1.572.0%

Benfica −1.2576.0%

Benfica −1.080.1%

Benfica −0.7584.1%

Benfica −0.588.1%

Benfica −0.2590.1%

Benfica draw no bet (0.0)92.0%

Benfica +0.2594.0%

Benfica +0.596.0%

Benfica +0.7596.8%

Benfica +1.097.6%

Benfica +1.599.2%

Benfica +2.099.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Benfica win1.14

Draw12.71

Estoril Praia win24.81

Over 2.51.33

Under 2.54.01

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Benfica wins by more than 1 goals72%

Estoril Praia wins by more than 1 goals1%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Benfica

vs Omonia Nicosia (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Lech PoznanFri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 01/09 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.