Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bournemouth
37%
Draw
28%
Brentford
35%
Actual result: Bournemouth 2 – 2 Brentford · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bournemouth, negative favours Brentford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bournemouth - Brentford)+0.06
Expected total goals2.91
Expected goals Bournemouth / Brentford1.49 / 1.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.4% / 39.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.3%
Over 2.5 goals 55.7%
Over 3.5 goals 33.3%
First half
First-half result (Bournemouth / draw / Brentford)29.3% / 43.0% / 27.7%
A goal in the first half71.5%
Two or more in the first half39.3%
Half-time then full-time
Bournemouth lead at half-time then Bournemouth win22.5%
Brentford lead at half-time then Brentford win20.7%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bournemouth's side
Bournemouth −2.013.0%
Bournemouth −1.7515.9%
Bournemouth −1.518.7%
Bournemouth −1.2523.4%
Bournemouth −1.028.1%
Bournemouth −0.7532.8%
Bournemouth −0.537.4%
Bournemouth −0.2544.4%
Bournemouth draw no bet (0.0)51.3%
Bournemouth +0.2558.3%
Bournemouth +0.565.3%
Bournemouth +0.7569.7%
Bournemouth +1.074.2%
Bournemouth +1.583.1%
Bournemouth +2.088.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bournemouth win2.67
Draw3.59
Brentford win2.88
Over 2.51.79
Under 2.52.26
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bournemouth wins by more than 1 goals19%
Brentford wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners10.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%