Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Genoa
43%
Draw
30%
Frosinone
27%
Actual result: Genoa 1 – 1 Frosinone · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Genoa, negative favours Frosinone) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Genoa - Frosinone)+0.34
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Genoa / Frosinone1.40 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.9% / 49.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.1%
Over 2.5 goals 44.5%
Over 3.5 goals 23.3%
First half
First-half result (Genoa / draw / Frosinone)31.7% / 46.5% / 21.8%
A goal in the first half65.5%
Two or more in the first half31.6%
Half-time then full-time
Genoa lead at half-time then Genoa win25.9%
Level at half-time then draw19.5%
Level at half-time then Genoa win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Genoa's side
Genoa −2.014.6%
Genoa −1.7518.0%
Genoa −1.521.3%
Genoa −1.2526.7%
Genoa −1.032.1%
Genoa −0.7537.5%
Genoa −0.542.9%
Genoa −0.2550.4%
Genoa draw no bet (0.0)58.0%
Genoa +0.2565.6%
Genoa +0.573.2%
Genoa +0.7577.1%
Genoa +1.081.1%
Genoa +1.589.1%
Genoa +2.093.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Genoa win2.33
Draw3.30
Frosinone win3.73
Over 2.52.25
Under 2.51.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Genoa wins by more than 1 goals21%
Frosinone wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%