Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Dortmund
79%
Draw
13%
Paderborn
8%
Actual result: Dortmund 3 – 0 Paderborn · Dortmund winJarvis gave this outcome: 79% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Dortmund, negative favours Paderborn) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Dortmund - Paderborn)+2.03
Expected total goals3.62
Expected goals Dortmund / Paderborn2.82 / 0.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.8% / 48.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.8%
Over 2.5 goals 70.1%
Over 3.5 goals 48.9%
First half
First-half result (Dortmund / draw / Paderborn)59.8% / 30.0% / 10.2%
A goal in the first half80.2%
Two or more in the first half48.7%
Half-time then full-time
Dortmund lead at half-time then Dortmund win56.4%
Level at half-time then Dortmund win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw7.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Dortmund's side
Dortmund −2.048.6%
Dortmund −1.7553.9%
Dortmund −1.559.3%
Dortmund −1.2564.2%
Dortmund −1.069.2%
Dortmund −0.7574.1%
Dortmund −0.579.0%
Dortmund −0.2582.4%
Dortmund draw no bet (0.0)85.7%
Dortmund +0.2589.0%
Dortmund +0.592.4%
Dortmund +0.7593.7%
Dortmund +1.095.1%
Dortmund +1.597.8%
Dortmund +2.098.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Dortmund win1.27
Draw7.50
Paderborn win13.12
Over 2.51.43
Under 2.53.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals59%
Paderborn wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%