Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Freiburg
57%
Draw
23%
Mgladbach
20%
Actual result: Freiburg 5 – 0 Mgladbach · Freiburg winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Freiburg, negative favours Mgladbach) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Freiburg - Mgladbach)+0.88
Expected total goals3.08
Expected goals Freiburg / Mgladbach1.98 / 1.10
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.5% / 41.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.2%
Over 2.5 goals 59.5%
Over 3.5 goals 37.2%
First half
First-half result (Freiburg / draw / Mgladbach)42.2% / 39.3% / 18.5%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half41.4%
Half-time then full-time
Freiburg lead at half-time then Freiburg win36.5%
Level at half-time then Freiburg win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw13.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Freiburg's side
Freiburg −2.025.6%
Freiburg −1.7530.0%
Freiburg −1.534.4%
Freiburg −1.2540.0%
Freiburg −1.045.6%
Freiburg −0.7551.2%
Freiburg −0.556.8%
Freiburg −0.2562.7%
Freiburg draw no bet (0.0)68.5%
Freiburg +0.2574.4%
Freiburg +0.580.2%
Freiburg +0.7583.2%
Freiburg +1.086.3%
Freiburg +1.592.3%
Freiburg +2.095.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Freiburg win1.76
Draw4.28
Mgladbach win5.06
Over 2.51.68
Under 2.52.47
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Freiburg wins by more than 1 goals34%
Mgladbach wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%